Various factors will influence security results across the continent. The future tendencies will, first and foremost, reinforce each other. Migration will be influenced by climate change, while population dynamics will promote urbanization. As a result, tracing interconnections will become even more crucial than looking for “root causes” of vulnerability. Second, these tendencies will have different effects throughout time and geography. Broad endeavors and linear solutions, without a doubt, will be ineffective. Instead, granular, location-specific initiatives (at the national, subnational, and municipal levels) will become even more important. Third, as Raymond Gilpin, Chief Economist, Regional Bureau for Africa-United Nations Development Program, points out, these developments will have diverse effects on different categories of insecurity.
The inevitable transformation of Africa’s security landscape will dramatically alter the type, frequency, and position of violent confrontation throughout the continent. Booming demographic demands and degradation in the Sahel, for example, will exacerbate property and commodity disputes in already fragile societies, rendering them more vulnerable to militia violence and violent extremists. On the other side, megacities with increasing slums (such as Lagos, Cairo, and Johannesburg) are likely to see a rise in violent protests, which might be interactive, diplomatic, or both (Gilpin, 2020).
The many paths and possible repercussions of this development might help to influence the development and execution of appropriate policies, as well as the building of resilient institutions. More than ever, policymakers will need to focus on the causes and sustainers of protracted conflict rather than responding to the manifestations (Gilpin, 2020).
Policymakers must also untangle the complex, and often multinational, the environment of future developments. Furthermore, as cities are becoming the ground zero and weather patterns becomes an even more crucial component of where Africans live, how they earn a living and the degree to which groups peacefully coexist, the almost binary core vs. periphery approach to democracy, economic history, and vulnerability will be a thing of the past (Gilpin, 2020).
• Create capable institutions.
• Make use of technology.
• Improve domestic resource mobilization by strengthening state-society connections.
According to Judd Devermont, who spoke on “Africa’s Security Challenges: A View from Congress, the Pentagon, and USAID” on September 29, 2021, the region’s security scene has changed dramatically in the last two decades. Threats to US and African values have grown more varied, broad, and complicated. To address these issues, we’ll need a fresh approach to interaction and alliances, as well as a rethinking of our conciliatory, establishment, and protection toolkits (Devermont, 2021).
“There is a need to show that African leaders are being engaged at a top-level. And President Biden’s speech at the African Union’s 34th summit in February, as well as Vice President Harris’ separate meetings with the presidents of Ghana and Zambia, was a promising start. Now is the moment to lay the solid groundwork with our African partners. We must fully appreciate Africa’s potential and diversify in the continent to support African goals for democratic government and increased prosperity “2021, Anthony Brown concludes
Future security concerns in Africa are formidable, but not overwhelming. Addressing them is critical to achieving socio-economic development goals such as the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. This must begin with concrete, concentrated, and collaborative measures to overcome the continent’s ongoing economic, administration, and organizational shortcomings. (2020, Raymond Gilpin)
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